BUSINESSES
MKK Racing
Laying horses to make a profit.
We developed a model that selects horses and using our own money, place 'lay' bets hoping the horses lose. We behave like a bookmaker. The model is about 98% accurate at picking losers. You can subscribe to receive the same information.
Don't try to beat the bookmakers. Copy them!
I wanted to make money from gambling (it's tax-free in the UK), but I'm not an expert at horse racing, nor do I want to spend hours every day analysing form and statistics to make selections. I wanted a system to gamble without emotion.
No 'gut feelings', no wild picks, no betting on horses with a funny name. I call this 'emotional betting' and the big winners are the bookmakers, not us. I wanted a computer to do the picking for me. Unemptionally.
Consistently picking winners to make a profit is difficult.
Bookmakers make millions every year.
Picking losers is much easier.
I want to copy the bookmakers.
With AI's help, I created a mathematical model that does just that.
I fed over 150,000 results from two years of UK and Irish horse races into ChatGPT and asked it to give me criteria that I could use to select horses with a high probability of losing. ChatGPT analysed the data and produced a set of criteria in less than 60 seconds! I feed the day's races into a spreadsheet and using the ChatGPT criteria, the model makes the selections that I place lay bets on. This is the information that I give to my subscribers.
2026 Performance
So, how is the model doing over 2026?
This is my profit chart since 1st January 2026.
I started with £750 but over the year I've added more money, so my total 'investment' is now £5,450.
My bank balance is £6,849, so that's a profit of £1,399 from 1st January to 15th May 2026. a 25.6% return.
You can see the growth in January, February and March is slow. This was because I was risking 5% of my £750 bank on each race, just £37. See how the profit growth rocketed in April and May when I added more money to my bank account and started laying larger amounts. I am now risking 5% of £6,849 on each race, £343. three bad days in the middle of May, but recovered those losses by the month end. Bigger stakes mean bigger profits, but the risk levels and selection criteria haven't changed. The risk profile is still the same. The model is still predicting losers with 98% success.
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January was an 18% profit, from £750 to £884.
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February was rubbish. Up just £19, a 2% profit, from £884 to £903, so I made alterations to the model.
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March was better with an 11% profit, from £903 to £1,000.
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April was great with a 30% profit, from £1,000 to £1,303.
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May was good with 14% profit. I added £4,700 to the bank to start the month with £6,000, ending on £6,849.
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June, I am adding more money to start the month with £10,000.
This model is a 'Get Rich Slow' scheme unless you fund your gambling account with £20k+. You just need to be patient.
My goal is to make an average of £200 a day or £6,000 a month, with no tax due. That's like earning £10,000 a month before tax. Of course, I want the bank balance to keep growing, so I am earning £250, £500, £1000 a day, just for a few minutes work.
That's the plan.
Subscribe
I use Patreon.com to publish daily tips to your email address and process card payments securely. It's like OnlyFans without the sex. A platform for selling content. I never see or handle your card details. Patreon do that using their secure payment processing.
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I don't see your bank card details or process your cards.
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I don't sell you other services, like training courses (you can buy our MKK branded merchandise if you want).
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I am not a social media 'influencer' posting photos of private jets in Dubai, Lamborghinis and expensive watches.
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I do not manage other people's money - don't want the responsibility and there are rules and regulations about management other people's money. You manage your own money. Place your own bets.
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I do NOT guarantee that every tip will be successful.
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I am not going to make you rich overnight.
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There will be days / weeks / months, where we lose money. This is gambling after all.
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This system requires long-term thinking. Patience for your gambling account to grow.
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This is NOT a Get Rich Quick scheme. It is a Get Rich Slow scheme.
Every morning, I produce the daily tips of horses to lay, and send them to your Inbox. You lay your own bets.
So far, the model is 98% accurate at picking losers.
£25 + VAT per month
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Go to www.patreon.com/mkkracing.
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Create an account.
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Add your payment card (I never see this)
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Subscribe to the MKK Racing service.
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And, that's it! You're in! You start getting daily emails the next day.
You can cancel at any time (via patreon.com)
There is no minimum contract length.
What is Lay Betting?
Lay betting means betting on something NOT to happen. We do not want horses to win.
Backing is when you want something TO happen. Backers want horses to win.
Traditionally, you could only 'back' a horse to win, on the racetrack, in the betting shop and then online. The bookmaker would take the risk if the horse won and would pay out, but if your 'back' bet lost, they kept your stake. It was like this for years, bookmakers earning millions every year (and still do), until online betting exchanges appeared.
With traditional bookmakers, it's you against them. The more you win, the more the bookmaker loses. Win too much and you could find your account being suspended or even closed.
Betting exchanges work differently. They offer odds to 'back' horses to win, but also offer odds to 'lay' horses to lose. The exchange puts backers and layers together, one against the other, but never against the exchange. We want the horse to lose (like a bookmaker). The other person wants the horse to win. If the horse loses, we keep their stake (like the bookmaker). If the horse wins, we payout (like the bookmaker).
Did you notice the recurring phrase, "like the bookmaker"?
Laying bets through an exchange gives you the opportunity to behave like a bookmaker.
Understanding the Betting Exchange Screen
We are using matchbook.com to explain lay betting, but the same principles apply to betdaq.com, betfair.com and smarkets.com
Betting exchange screens may look complicated with multiple numbers and colours, but it can be explained quite easily.
The first thing that stands out are the blue and pink boxes.
The blue boxes represent what’s available to ‘back’.
Back betting is where you want something to happen, e.g. you want the horse to win.
We are NOT interested in the blue 'back' odds.
The bold pink column represents what’s available to ‘lay’. THIS is what we are interested in.
Lay betting is where you are betting on something NOT happening, e.g. you don’t want the horse to win.
We are only interested in lay betting and pick horses that we DON’T want to win.
Look at the numbers in the pink boxes.
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The bold numbers are the odds
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the smaller numbers below shows how much money is available in the market for each horse.
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Exchange operators match gamblers who want to back and who want to lay together.
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The monetary values show you how big that market is for each horse. You don’t really need to worry about the liquidity value.
Focus on the bold PINK column for lay bets.....
You can see that betting exchanges use digital odds, instead of the traditional fractional odds that betting is known for. Once you get used to digital odds, it's actually quicker and easier to compare the odds between horses, e.g.
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The 1st favourite, 'Light Em Up Nigel', is 3.8.
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The 2nd favourite, 'Pepe Le Mono', is 3.85
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The 3rd favourite, 'Flat White', is 4.4
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The 4th favourite, 'Lock Out', is 7.4
... so you can see the odds lengthening. The market expects this to be a tight race between the first two horses, 'Light Em Up Nigel' and"Pepe Le Mono'.
Placing a lay bet on matchbook
We are using matchbook.com to explain how to place a 'lay' bet, but the process is the same for the other betting exchanges; betdaq.com, smarkets.com and betfair.com.
The following instructions tell you how to place a lay bet, but the process is the same for any other betting exchange.
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Log in.
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Find the race you want to bet on.
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You will see numbers in blue boxes and numbers in pink boxes.
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If you are viewing the odds on a desktop computer with a larger screen than a mobile phone, you will see two more sets of numbers in white boxes, either side of the blue and pink boxes. Ignore them. Focus on the pink boxes only.
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Click on the pink box for the horse that you want to lay.
In this example above...
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I click on the pink lay box for 'A Cheap Thrill'. The betslip appears on the right hand side.
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Enter the amount you want to risk losing in the LIABILITY box.
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I can enter a stake value or the liability.
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The STAKE (£2.63) is what you stand to win if the horse doesn’t win.
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The LIABILITY (£20) is how much you stand to lose if the horse does win and you have to pay-out.
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Much simpler to enter the LIABILITY amount you are prepared to risk losing, so that you can risk the same amount for ach race you place lay bets on.
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If you enter the Liability value, the website then calculates the stake for me. This way, I control how much I could lose for each race.
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How much should your LIABILITY be? How much should you risk to lose on each race?
I set my Liability value as 5% of my gambling bank balance.
If I have £1,000 in my bank, I am prepared to risk £50 on each race.
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If you are happy, then click the ‘place bet’ button at the bottom of the screen, to make your bet.
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Confirm and then the exchange will match you bet with someone who thinks the same horse will win.
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And that’s it.
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The exchange will take the value of your liability and hold it in escrow. If the horse loses, you get your Liability amount back and you are awarded the stake from the other person who backed the horse to win and lost, minus the exchange's commission (typically just 2% of how much you won).
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Wait for the race to run and smile when your horse loses.
Now you are probably thinking, "I can lose a lot more than I win".
Yes.
But think about....
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First and second favourite horses win their race about 50% of the time,
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using our model we work hard to deselect horses that might win and target those horses with the greatest statistical chance of NOT winning. We are about 97-98% accurate at picking losers.
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bookmakers make millions of pounds every year, collecting those losing bets, whilst still paying out when a customer’s bet wins. We are behaving like the bookmaker, not the gambler, expecting many more horses to lose where we collect the stakes, than to win and we have to pay out. It's a long-term strategy.
How much should you bet?
The honest answer is, "the maximum you should bet, is the maximum you are prepared to lose".
I know that sounds easy, but you'll know when you bet an amount that you don't feel comfortable with. Your heart rate goes up and your palms get sweaty. That's no fun. So, like the mathematical way I select which horses to lay, I have a mathematical formula that calculates how much to bet - and it's very simple.
I risk 5% of my bank balance on each race.
The Bankroll
How much you bet is calculated as a proportion of how much money you have in your betting account - your 'bankroll'.
There are then two ways you can decide how much to bet
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The 'Fixed' Bankroll
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The 'Racheted' Bankroll (I use this method)
The 'Fixed' Bankroll
This is where you fix the LABILITY VALUE at an amount you feel comfortable with. You choose how much you are prepared to lose on each race, considering I do our best not to pick winners, so I don't want to pay-out.
This method makes it easy to control how much you gamble on each race and also, when your bankroll exceeds your starting investment, you can withdraw money and enjoy your winnings.
e.g.
I set the LIABILITY RATE at 5% of my bankroll.
Imagine you deposited £500 into your betting exchange account.
Your LIABILITY AMOUNT for each race is then £25 (5% of £500).
This is the value that you enter on the betslip in the 'LIABILITY' box.
The benefit of this method is...
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you control how much you risk losing, so it doesn't get out of control.
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your liability remain the same every day, so it's easy to remember what number to type in.
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setting your LIABILITY RATE at 5% of your starting bankroll, means you can can afford to pay out 20 winning horses in a row before you have lost all your money - but consider that our model avoids picking winners.
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If at some point, you feel comfortable raising the LIABILITY VALUE, recalculate it again at a higher percentage of your current bankroll, but remember, as your potential profits go up, so will the amount you pay-out on winners.
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Personally, I find 5% a comfortable liability level.
The Rachet System
THIS IS THE SYSTEM IN USE WHEN IN GAMBLE. MY OWN MONEY
I want to grow the profits as the bankroll increases, yet keeping the same risk level. It is similar to the 'Fixed' Bankroll method, except I replaced 'Fixed' with 'Racheted'.
Each time the 'highest' bankroll value goes up, my LIABILITY AMOUNT is recalculated at 5% again.
e.g.
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Day 1
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I start with £500. I've chosen the LIABILITY RATE as 5%, so the LIABILITY AMOUNT is £25.
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Let's assume after Day 1, I've made £50 profit.
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Because the 'highest' bankroll has increased from £500 to £550, I recalculate the LIABILITY VALUE at 5% of the new 'highest' bankroll of £550 = £27.50
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Day 2
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Imagine at the end of Day 2, I've made another £50 profit.
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My 'highest' bankroll is now £600, so I recalculate the LIABILITY VALUE as 5% of £600 = £30
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Day 3
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Oh dear, I lost £30, so my 'current' bankroll has fallen from its highest level of £600 to £570.
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This time, I DON'T recalculate the LIABILITY VALUE. I let it continue as 5% of the 'highest' bankroll, not 5% of the 'current' bankroll amount.
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So, my LIABILITY VALUE remains at £30 (5% of £600).
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The advantage of this system is that your profits will grow faster because we are effectively compounding the profits each time the 'highest' bankroll value goes up. The LIABILITY VALUE (and consequently the STAKE VALUE) goes up, but the risk level remains constant. 5% in this example.
I've found that 5% feels a comfortable level of how much money I am prepared to lose on each race, as a proportion of my bankroll, but you can choose your own LIABILITY VALUE. Increase it if you want higher returns and higher risk. Lower it if you want to reduce payouts and the impact on your bankroll of winners.